Mục ý kiến chuyên gia Changes in the Container Shipping Industry under Trump’s Second Term

The trade and tariff policies of Trump’s second-term administration go beyond mere protectionism, aiming instead to actively promote the reshoring of U.S. manufacturing and the restructuring of global supply chains. At the same time, the administration seeks to incentivize foreign companies operating within the U.S. by offering benefits that encourage them to establish production and business operations domestically. Reshoring refers to the phenomenon where companies relocate their production facilities from overseas back to their home country, driven by reasons such as supply chain stabilization and job creation.
Such policy shifts are expected to not only have a significant impact on the global economic order and trade environment but also bring about both direct and indirect changes to the container shipping industry.
Accordingly, this column aims to analyze the short- and long-term impacts of the Trump administration’s policy stance and changes in the international trade environment on the shipping industry, and to explore strategic directions that shipping lines and cargo owners should consider in response. 1. Comparison of Trade Policies between Trump’s First Term (2017.1–2021.1) and Second Term (2025.1–) During his first term, the Trump administration implemented hardline measures such as imposing high tariffs on Chinese products to improve the U.S. trade balance and curb China’s unfair trade practices.

While the policy initially aimed to reduce the trade imbalance with China, in reality, companies simply shifted their production bases from China to other low-cost countries. As a result, instead of revitalizing U.S. manufacturing, production bases moved to countries like Vietnam and Mexico, and the fundamental issue of the U.S. trade deficit remained unresolved. For example, Foxconn (a Taiwan-based electronics manufacturer), in response to high tariffs on Chinese products under the Trump administration, reduced its production concentration in China and relocated parts of its operations to other low-cost countries such as Vietnam, Mexico, Brazil, and India.

To avoid the burden of tariffs, companies ceased production in China and moved their manufacturing bases to other cost-competitive countries in Asia and Latin America. In the process, firms restructured their global supply chains and explored new markets; however, reshoring to the U.S. did not materialize. In other words, production was simply relocated, and the U.S. manufacturing base was not restored, while the complexity of the global supply chain increased as an unintended side effect. Additionally, the short-term tariff policies led to rising consumer prices and heightened supply chain instability, placing a burden on corporate management.

The second-term administration is moving beyond the approach of simply imposing retaliatory tariffs on Chinese products, instead adopting a more systematic and structural strategy to fundamentally promote the reshoring of U.S. manufacturing. This policy focuses on expanding domestic production capacity to secure long-term supply chain stability and strengthen the competitiveness of American manufacturing. In particular, the Trump 2.0 administration has introduced an incentive system that provides tariff benefits to companies establishing production facilities within the United States, signaling a strong intent to draw dispersed overseas production bases back to the U.S. Furthermore, policies that offer benefits to foreign companies operating within the U.S. are playing a powerful role in encouraging global corporations to enter the American market and build local production bases. ^[2]
These incentives go beyond simply improving the trade balance in the short term; they aim to enhance the long-term competitiveness of U.S. manufacturing and to build a more sustainable supply chain.

While both the first and second terms share a fundamental premise of protectionism, the first administration ultimately saw production bases shift merely from China to other regions in Southeast Asia.
In contrast, the second-term government is actively promoting a revival of U.S. manufacturing, pursuing a clearer strategy of replacing overseas production capacity with domestic facilities in the United States.

2. Impact of Trump’s Second-Term Policies 2.1 Short-Term Effects of Tariff Imposition
The tariff policies of the Trump administration’s second term are expected to have a direct and immediate impact on global supply chains and the shipping industry from the early stages of implementation.
Once tariffs are applied, the prices of raw materials and finished goods imported from overseas will rise, and this increase in costs is likely to be passed on to end consumers—leading to higher consumer prices and increased inflationary pressure. ^[3]

The major short-term effects are as follows:
1) Before tariffs take effect, companies are highly likely to preemptively stockpile large inventories in anticipation of price increases. This “inventory front-loading” strategy could lead to congestion at ports and logistics centers, further intensifying bottlenecks at container terminals and disrupting vessel turnaround times. As port congestion worsens, shipping lines may find it difficult to maintain regular sailing schedules, thereby increasing the volatility of freight rates.

2) After tariffs are imposed, import volumes from overseas production bases to the U.S. may decline. If there is a sudden drop in cargo volume on existing liner routes, carriers will be burdened with the need to adjust schedules, which could lead to operational instability across the shipping industry.

Ultimately, the rise in logistics costs and disruptions to supply chains in the short term will pressure companies to seek new supply chain strategies. Moreover, as import prices rise due to the tariffs, inflationary pressure across consumer goods will intensify.
This not only negatively affects the overall economy but could also impact freight rate-setting and the price competitiveness of the shipping industry.

2.2 Long-Term Effects
The fundamental objective of the Trump administration’s second-term policies goes beyond short-term price hikes caused by tariff imposition; it aims to achieve long-term economic stability and enhanced competitiveness through the revitalization of U.S. manufacturing and a comprehensive restructuring of supply chains. The long-term impacts of this strategy can be analyzed from multiple perspectives.

If tariff incentives and reshoring policies succeed in expanding domestic production bases, the U.S. will be able to reduce its reliance on overseas manufacturing and increase the share of local production. This could lead to greater supply chain stability over the mid- to long-term, mitigating volatility in international logistics and contributing to price stabilization. A stable supply chain may help offset the initial inflationary pressures triggered by tariffs. The strengthening of U.S. manufacturing could also lay the groundwork for a new trade order centered around the United States.

If the U.S. assumes a dominant role within global supply chains, countries heavily dependent on the U.S. market may face negative consequences such as weakened export competitiveness and reduced market access. Over time, such structural shifts could create a polarization between "winners" and "losers" in the global economy.
The expansion of U.S. production will lead to a broader restructuring of global supply chains. While manufacturing and supply chain competitiveness within the U.S. may improve through local revitalization, volatility in cargo volumes could arise for overseas production bases and existing liner shipping routes.

2.3 Summary
In the short term, tariff imposition is expected to have negative effects on the shipping industry, such as price increases, port congestion driven by preemptive inventory stocking, and a sharp decline in cargo volumes.
However, in the long term, there is potential for structural improvements in the economy through the revitalization of U.S. manufacturing and the stabilization of supply chains. While these policy shifts may create initial inflationary pressure, they are likely to produce positive outcomes within the U.S. in the form of enhanced competitiveness and resilience.
On the other hand, countries that are overly dependent on the U.S. market may face adverse consequences, including weakened export competitiveness and declining industrial strength. As a result, Trump’s second-term trade policies are likely to position the U.S. as a "winner" in the reshaped global trade order, while simultaneously introducing various forms of volatility and structural realignments across the global supply chain—including in the shipping industry. 3. Impact on the Liner Shipping Industry: A New Maritime Transport Paradigm 3.1 Short-Term Impact and Rescheduling of Shipping Operations
The Trump administration’s second-term hardline tariff policies are expected to cause the following short-term disruptions in the shipping industry. As companies rush to secure large inventories in anticipation of price increases before and after tariff imposition, port congestion is expected to rise sharply, intensifying bottlenecks at container terminals. Before COVID-19, the average congestion levels at North American ports stood at 0.40 million TEU on the West Coast and 0.44 million TEU on the East Coast. However, as of December 2024, congestion levels have surged, with West Coast ports averaging 0.72 million TEU and East Coast ports 0.79 million TEU. These figures represent increases of 80% and 79.5%, respectively, compared to pre-pandemic levels, indicating that maintaining smooth logistics operations has become significantly more difficult. This situation leads to reduced vessel turnaround rates and supply chain disruptions, forcing carriers to reschedule their services. As service operations become more unstable, vessel waiting times at major ports lengthen, potentially reducing the overall operational efficiency of maritime transport. In addition, increased freight rate volatility destabilizes booking schedules, which may drive up shippers’ logistics costs and lead to changes in the structure of transportation contracts.

After the imposition of tariffs, imports from overseas production bases to the United States are likely to decline, resulting in a sudden drop in cargo volumes on existing liner shipping routes. In particular, on routes heavily affected by tariffs—such as the Asia-U.S. trade lane—adjustments in shipping capacity will become inevitable due to decreased export volumes, forcing carriers to reduce certain routes or seek new transportation corridors. While freight rates on specific routes may sharply decline due to reduced cargo volumes, there may also be short-term spikes in freight rates during periods of increased shipping demand caused by inventory buildup. Amid such market volatility, carriers will need to establish flexible deployment plans, enhance their responsiveness to spot markets, and adjust shipping capacity in line with regional demand shifts.

3.2 Mid-to-Long-Term Supply Chain Restructuring and Strengthening of Maritime Logistics Competitiveness
As the Trump administration’s second-term hardline tariff policies and supply chain restructuring efforts accelerate, the shipping industry will face new transportation patterns and competitive dynamics over the mid-to-long term. With the reshoring of manufacturing gaining momentum, the existing structure of global supply chains is expected to shift, and as a result, both the proportion and routes of maritime transport are likely to change. If domestic production in the United States increases, the volume of imports of finished goods from abroad will decrease, while imports of raw materials and intermediate goods—and exports of finished products—may rise. Thus, total container traffic will vary depending on the industry and product characteristics. In manufacturing sectors that are primarily focused on domestic demand, the relative importance of maritime shipping may decline, potentially increasing reliance on domestic land transportation such as rail and trucking.

Countries like India and those in Southeast Asia are expected to emerge as new global trade hubs amid this wave of trade realignment. With low labor costs and growing manufacturing bases, these countries are well-positioned to benefit from the restructuring of global supply chains. As a result, investment in ports and logistics infrastructure in these regions will likely increase, leading to diversification of maritime routes and the development of new corridors and connectivity networks. In the case of the United States, as domestic production expands and reshoring policies are realized, the traditional volume of imported finished goods is expected to decline, while imports of raw materials and intermediate goods, along with exports of finished products, are likely to rise. For example, in sectors such as automobiles and electronics, the movement of parts and raw materials may increase in place of fully assembled imported goods, prompting significant changes in the operations of major container terminals and logistics networks. Additionally, the role of inland transportation will be strengthened, driving increased investment in rail and truck freight systems.

If infrastructure such as ports, roads, and railways is expanded to stabilize supply chains, this would likely have positive effects across the shipping industry, including easing port congestion and improving cargo handling efficiency. However, with new routes and markets emerging, major carriers are expected to intensify competition for cargo volumes, which will in turn bring pressure for more competitive freight rates and improved service levels. If freight rate competition becomes severe, it may negatively impact the profitability of carriers, particularly small and mid-sized operators who may struggle structurally against larger shipping companies. Therefore, carriers will need to go beyond price competition and focus on service differentiation and operational efficiency to secure sustainable competitiveness.

Amid these changes, the shipping industry is expected to actively restructure existing routes and develop emerging ones. As demand declines on traditional Asia-U.S. lanes, transatlantic routes (U.S.-Europe) and India-bound services may gain relative strength. In addition, if new logistics routes emerge in which parts are imported into the U.S. for assembly and then exported abroad, there will be a growing need to establish regular services on these segments or add intermediate ports of call to existing networks to distribute volumes more efficiently. Accordingly, shipping lines are likely to reduce or suspend low-margin routes, increase investments in high-growth lanes, and comprehensively revamp their deployment strategies.

Policy shifts and geopolitical developments will also significantly impact global maritime transport flows. First, as part of efforts to check China’s maritime and shipbuilding industries, the U.S. government is pursuing new surcharge measures targeting Chinese shipping lines and vessel manufacturers.[5] Such actions could trigger a reshuffling of global shipping routes and lead to changes in global supply chain strategies. In addition, President Trump has suggested reclaiming control over the Panama Canal, raising the possibility of toll adjustments or usage restrictions. These developments would directly impact the cost structure and operational strategies of routes to and from the Americas. Lastly, rising tensions in the Middle East may disrupt major shipping lanes through the Suez Canal, potentially causing spikes in freight rates and delays in operations. To prepare for such uncertainties, shipping companies must explore alternative routes and develop strategies to diversify risk.

As a result, the supply chain shifts driven by the Trump administration’s second-term policies are likely to trigger not only high short-term volatility in the global shipping industry, but also long-term structural transformations centered around the creation of new logistics networks. Consequently, shipping companies will need to prepare not only for short-term market volatility, but also develop proactive mid- to long-term strategies aligned with the evolving trends in global trade flows.

4. Conclusion The Trump administration’s second-term reshoring initiatives and shifts in trade policy are expected to cause short-term volatility in cargo volumes and disruptions in supply chains due to the imposition of tariffs, but in the mid-to-long term, they are likely to accelerate the expansion of U.S. manufacturing and the restructuring of global supply chains. As companies preemptively stockpile inventory out of concern over price hikes before and after the tariffs, port congestion and liner schedule adjustments will become inevitable, exposing the shipping industry to sharp fluctuations in supply and demand. Additionally, tariff policies may fuel inflation and clearly distinguish between winners and losers in the global economy.

Amid these changes, the liner shipping industry must not only respond to immediate market shocks, but also prepare for evolving transport patterns over the mid-to-long term. As the traditional Asia-U.S. trade lane network undergoes transformation, alternative routes such as the transatlantic and India lanes are likely to gain traction, prompting carriers to adjust their deployment strategies and develop new transportation corridors. It will also be strategically essential to consider alternative routes in response to policy variables and geopolitical risks surrounding the Panama and Suez Canals. The Korean shipping industry must recognize the potential downward pressure on freight rates due to a drop in cargo volume stemming from tariff hikes, as well as the expanded shipping capacity from newly delivered vessels. This will require innovative operational strategies aimed at optimizing cost structures, improving fleet efficiency, and maintaining competitive freight rates. In addition, in line with changes to the traditional Asia-U.S. focused network, efforts should be made to develop new routes and enhance the competitiveness of existing ones, driving diversification of service offerings.

These changes also carry important implications for shippers. As uncertainty in global shipping and supply chains grows, reducing reliance on specific countries or regions and diversifying supply chains across the U.S., Europe, and Southeast Asia will become essential. Furthermore, in light of freight rate volatility, it is important to secure long-term contracts and implement strategies that allow for cost predictability. In particular, building systems that enable rapid responses to market changes—using AI-based forecasting models and real-time logistics monitoring systems—will become increasingly critical.

Ultimately, the Trump administration’s second-term shifts in trade and supply chain policy will trigger short-term volatility and market disruptions, but in the long run, they will serve as a catalyst for structural changes in the shipping industry and global logistics networks. In response, both carriers and shippers must develop flexible strategies and secure long-term competitiveness in line with the evolving market landscape. # Reference [1] Statista, U.S. trade balance 2000-2023
[2] The Wall Street Journal, “Trump Says Plan Will Convince Foreign Companies to Shift Jobs to U.S.”
[3] Transport Topics, “Inflation Fears Grow With Tariff Uncertainty Looming”
[4] Clarksons, Shipping Intelligence Network.
[5] Reuters, “USTR proposes charging Chinese ships up to $1.5 million to enter US ports”

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